Fire AggroTier 2
at Ascent Akihabara
decks
25
(3.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
205
94-106-5
overall winrate
47.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.3%
avg ELO -0.6 per match
expected value
47.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1307
· median 1307
· range 1092–1488
(25 pilots with an ELO rating)
945
Q1 1204
Q3 1418
1736
12% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
12% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 15.6% | 36 | 14-21-1 | 40.3% | 41.2% | 37.1% | -4.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.1% | 20 | 7-11-2 | 40.0% | 41.7% | 38.6% | -4.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.8% | 21 | 9-11-1 | 45.2% | 46.0% | 45.0% | -1.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.6% | 12 | 9-3-0 | 75.0% | 68.8% | 71.1% | +9.0 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.3% | 8 | 6-2-0 | 75.0% | 66.7% | 66.4% | +7.9 |
| Water Genbu | 4.4% | 8 | 5-2-1 | 68.8% | 62.5% | 66.0% | +7.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.8% | 9 | 5-4-0 | 55.6% | 53.8% | 63.2% | +6.1 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.7% | 8 | 5-3-0 | 62.5% | 58.3% | 55.0% | +2.4 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.1% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 45.7% | -2.4 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.1% | 7 | 1-6-0 | 14.3% | 27.3% | 29.2% | -10.4 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.9% | 6 | 1-5-0 | 16.7% | 30.0% | 35.8% | -7.5 |
| Water Allies | 2.8% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 47.7% | -1.5 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.2% | 8 | 1-7-0 | 12.5% | 25.0% | 28.2% | -10.5 |
| Water Fractal | 2.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 63.3% | +9.9 |
| Wind Arcane | 2.1% | 9 | 5-4-0 | 55.6% | 53.8% | 53.9% | +1.8 |
| Fire Exia | 1.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.1% | +2.0 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.8% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 51.5% | +1.1 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.8% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 46.2% | -2.2 |
| Wind Allies | 1.6% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 44.4% | -4.1 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.5% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 29.4% | -15.3 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 57.5% | +5.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.3% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 45.6% | -3.3 |
| Fire Suited | 0.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.9% | -24.2 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 69.7% | +18.9 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.9 |
| Slimes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.1% | +17.8 |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 33.5% | -26.5 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.3% | +3.2 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.4% | +19.9 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.8 |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.1% | +4.0 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.5% | +21.6 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.6% | +21.7 |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 30.2% | -31.7 |
| Fire Byakko | 0.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.2 |
| Fire Neos | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Shadowstrike | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Byakko | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Kongming | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Diao Chan | 0.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.4 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.8 |
| Wind Byakko | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.8 |
| Wind Zander | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 25 from this event
The 25 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 6 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 6 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin, Inert Sword, The Looking Glass. Losers more often ran: Grand Crusader's Ring, Blazing Bowman, Fiery Interference.
Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin
Winning decks ran 2.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Inert Sword
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
The Looking Glass
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Liminal Guide
Winning decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
losing decks 0.8.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Sword of Shadows
Winning decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Intensified Pyre
Winning decks ran 2.3
copies on average,
losing decks 1.2.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Grand Crusader's Ring
Losing decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Blazing Bowman
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Fiery Interference
Losing decks ran 2.5
copies on average,
winning decks 1.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Heated Vengeance
Losing decks ran 1.3
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Impact Hammer
Losing decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper
Losing decks ran 2.7
copies on average,
winning decks 2.5.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 0.
Show all 78 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 58 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +0.83 | 5 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.83 | 0 | 5 | 1 | |
| Inert Sword | +0.83 | 5 | 0 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +0.83 | 5 | 0 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | +0.67 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | +0.67 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | +0.67 | 5 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Bowman | -0.67 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | -0.67 | 0 | 4 | 1 | |
| Heated Vengeance | -0.67 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 3 | 0 | 2 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.50 | 3 | 0 | 3 | |
| Impact Hammer | -0.50 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 4 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Forgelight Blade | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Mortal Ambition | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | -0.33 | 2 | 4 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Demolition | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 2 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Sword Saint's Vow | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| March Hare, Mottled Host | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 2 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Dazzling Courtesan | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Immolation Trap | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Expose Darkness | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Huaji of Heaven's Rise | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Sun Ce, Weaponsmaster | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.17 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Blazing Throw | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| Fiery Momentum | +0.17 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 5 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| Tempered Steel | +0.17 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fang of Dragon's Breath | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Veteran Blazebearer | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Captivating Cutthroat | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Soulknife | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Enfeebled Dagger | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Courier | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Vicious Slice | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Brackish Lutist | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cinder Geyser | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 4 | |
| Hone by Fire | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Three of Hearts | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Sable Remnant | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 |